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[Politics] Checkmate - F*cking with Clusters

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Previous Entry [Politics] Checkmate May. 14th, 2028 @ 02:41 pm Next Entry
If true, this is probably the end of the whole mess.

John Edwards Endorsing Obama

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From:jmpava
Date:May 14th, 2008 09:44 pm (UTC)
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Oh, it's already over. Roy Romer endorsed Obama yesterday. That's MUCH more important. I mean, have you seen the cabin that guy has? ;->
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From:avani
Date:May 14th, 2008 09:55 pm (UTC)
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Wow, well, that does cinch it then ;-)
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From:arisrabkin
Date:May 14th, 2008 10:09 pm (UTC)
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What startles me is that Edwards waited so long. Why hold off until so late in the process, and then jump right after a big Hillary win?
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From:scholarjeff
Date:May 14th, 2008 10:13 pm (UTC)
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If I had to guess, I'd say that he wanted to avoid endorsing if he could, and that the big Hillary win would actually be the impetus to endorse. If it was expected that Hillary was going to concede soon, and then a big win occurred and re-energized her to keep going, that might be the point where Edwards would say "Okay, enough is enough. I'm endorsing Obama. NOW will you stop?"

This is off the top of my head and I don't have anything to back it up or refute it, so take with a large chunk of salt. >.>
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From:jmpava
Date:May 14th, 2008 10:24 pm (UTC)
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To me, the 'big Clinton win' in West Virgina was about as meaningful as the 'big obama win' in Idaho, where he got something like 75%+ back on Super Tuesday. It was SUCH a given, that no one cared in the slightest.

The item that mattered the most was last weeks showing. After Clinton did better then expected in Pennsylvania - and therefore got a big popular vote bounce - Obama did even better in North Carolina and help Clinton to a very meager victory in North Carolina. This is important because Penn was the last 'big' state and Obama basically erased Clinton delegate and popular vote gains from it in the next contests. Since then, Obama has (by everyone's count now) finally also acquired the lead in superdelegates, meaning that there isn't a single metric left that Client leads in.

At this point, the primary is over - Obama and McCain are both doing general election campaigning against each other. If there is any reason for Clinton to be in, it's so she doesn't drop just before Kentucky and Puerto Rico and have Obama lose those states as now the only nominee.

My take at least ;->
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From:scholarjeff
Date:May 14th, 2008 10:25 pm (UTC)
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I'll go with that - you're almost certainly more informed than I am. I will note with bemusement that at one point, you called Clinton "Client". ;P
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From:jmpava
Date:May 14th, 2008 10:30 pm (UTC)
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Gee, I can't IMAGINE why my fingers decided to use THAT spelling as default ;->

Edited at 2008-05-14 10:30 pm (UTC)
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From:jeffspender
Date:May 15th, 2008 12:42 am (UTC)
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I don't actually think this conflicts with Jeff's explanation... I think most folks who actually understand the dynamics of the race in a big picture sense would agree with what you're saying... but the media (or at least the headlines) have been making a fairly big deal out of the West Virgina thing. After North Carolina it was all "Yeah, she doesn't really have a leg to stand on at this point", but after West Virgina suddenly it was "Clinton had such a huge blowout there, it raises extreme doubts about Obama's ability to win over white blue-collar voters, there's no way people could be asking her to drop out after such a big victory."

I'd find it hard to believe that the timing of the Edwards endorsement isn't at least partly to shut down the West Virgina talk and get the media back in line with the reality that Clinton's pretty close to done. And actually... while the "Clinton's still in it" talk could just be annoying by prolonging things, it's the "Obama can't win with white blue-collar voters" talk that has the potential to be extremely dangerous if Obama's going to be the nominee.

Further, if Edwards does take a semi-active stand promoting Obama over the next week or two, and he does show that he can help put Obama over the top with some of the groups he's been struggling with, I think that'd pretty much make him a lock for the VP slot.
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From:avani
Date:May 15th, 2008 01:53 am (UTC)
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Further, if Edwards does take a semi-active stand promoting Obama over the next week or two, and he does show that he can help put Obama over the top with some of the groups he's been struggling with, I think that'd pretty much make him a lock for the VP slot.

The only explanation I've heard of why he dropped out of the race when he did that makes sense to me is that he wanted to focus on his personal life. If he takes the VP slot, I'm going to be even more confused.
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From:jmpava
Date:May 15th, 2008 02:04 am (UTC)
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I've heard AG thrown around a lot more, which would make a lot of sense as it's still a high-profile leadership/policy position without all the campaigning shit.

I'd be kinda surprised if Edwards tried for VP twice in a row. I just don't see the point in it.
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From:jeffspender
Date:May 15th, 2008 02:28 am (UTC)
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Heh, that sentence originally ended with "if he wants it" but I deleted it for whatever reason. ;)
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From:avani
Date:May 14th, 2008 11:01 pm (UTC)
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It may also be to shut up all the pundits who think that Hillary is a real contender for the VP slot.
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From:fabricant
Date:May 14th, 2008 10:14 pm (UTC)
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I certainly hope so, but I'm still expecting Clinton to stay in until at least Kentucky and Oregon.
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From:flamingnerd
Date:May 14th, 2008 10:16 pm (UTC)
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you know, sometimes I think that they orchestrate this whole thing so that more people actually pay attention to politics.
From:(Anonymous)
Date:May 15th, 2008 12:38 am (UTC)
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Do you really think so? I mean, are there ANY voters out there left who are like "Well, I was gonna vote for Clinton, but now that Edwards has endorsed Obama I guess I'll vote for him..."
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From:martian687
Date:May 15th, 2008 12:39 am (UTC)
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Do you really think so? I mean, are there ANY voters out there left who are like "Well, I was gonna vote for Clinton, but now that Edwards has endorsed Obama I guess I'll vote for him..."
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From:avani
Date:May 15th, 2008 12:57 am (UTC)
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How about "I wanted Edwards, but now don't know who to vote for". Clinton has been getting the majority of late deciders. I believe there is a good chance now that those who clearly wanted Edwards will now bias towards Obama.

Also, yes, I do think some of the votes for Clinton were actually votes for "not the black/'muslim'/'funny name' guy", so bet that there exist people who would have voted for Clinton who will at least take a serious look as to why this popular, white, man with a down-to-Earth image is endorsing him.
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From:marvinalone
Date:May 16th, 2008 04:34 am (UTC)
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Not to mention the fact that (at least some of) Edward's delegates are now voting for Obama.
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